Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling
Identifieur interne : 001A89 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001A88; suivant : 001A90Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling
Auteurs : Paula Moraga [Royaume-Uni] ; Jorge Cano [Royaume-Uni] ; Rebecca F. Baggaley [Royaume-Uni] ; John O. Gyapong [Ghana] ; Sammy M. Njenga [Kenya] ; Birgit Nikolay [Royaume-Uni] ; Emmanuel Davies [Nigeria] ; Maria P. Rebollo [États-Unis] ; Rachel L. Pullan [Royaume-Uni] ; Moses J. Bockarie [Royaume-Uni] ; T. Déirdre Hollingsworth [Royaume-Uni] ; Manoj Gambhir [Australie] ; Simon J. Brooker [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Parasites & Vectors [ 1756-3305 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Afrique subsaharienne (épidémiologie), Analyse spatio-temporelle, Animaux, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Filariose lymphatique (transmission), Filariose lymphatique (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Prévalence, Topographie médicale, Wuchereria bancrofti (isolement et purification), Épidémiosurveillance.
- MESH :
- isolement et purification : Wuchereria bancrofti.
- épidémiologie : Afrique subsaharienne, Filariose lymphatique.
- Analyse spatio-temporelle, Animaux, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Modèles théoriques, Prévalence, Topographie médicale, Épidémiosurveillance.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Africa South of the Sahara (epidemiology), Animals, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Elephantiasis, Filarial (epidemiology), Elephantiasis, Filarial (transmission), Epidemiological Monitoring, Models, Theoretical, Prevalence, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Topography, Medical, Wuchereria bancrofti (isolation & purification).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Africa South of the Sahara.
- epidemiology : Elephantiasis, Filarial.
- isolation & purification : Wuchereria bancrofti.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- transmission : Elephantiasis, Filarial.
- Animals, Epidemiological Monitoring, Models, Theoretical, Prevalence, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Topography, Medical.
Abstract
Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.
A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of
The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.
LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x
PubMed: 26496983
PubMed Central: 4620019
Affiliations:
- Australie, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, Région du Grand Accra
- Accra, Legon (Ghana), Londres
- Université du Ghana
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Le document en format XML
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<term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term>
<term>Elephantiasis, Filarial (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Elephantiasis, Filarial (transmission)</term>
<term>Epidemiological Monitoring</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term>
<term>Topography, Medical</term>
<term>Wuchereria bancrofti (isolation & purification)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Afrique subsaharienne (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term>
<term>Animaux</term>
<term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses ()</term>
<term>Filariose lymphatique (transmission)</term>
<term>Filariose lymphatique (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques</term>
<term>Prévalence</term>
<term>Topographie médicale</term>
<term>Wuchereria bancrofti (isolement et purification)</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa South of the Sahara</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Wuchereria bancrofti</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolement et purification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Wuchereria bancrofti</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Afrique subsaharienne</term>
<term>Filariose lymphatique</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term>
<term>Epidemiological Monitoring</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term>
<term>Topography, Medical</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term>
<term>Animaux</term>
<term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques</term>
<term>Prévalence</term>
<term>Topographie médicale</term>
<term>Épidémiosurveillance</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of <italic>Wuchereria bancrofti</italic>
microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>
).</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>
) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<region><li>Angleterre</li>
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<settlement><li>Accra</li>
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